The final Grand Slam of the season begins without a single name that can be declared the clear favorite for the trophy. Injuries, lengthy layoffs and inconsistent form among the leading players have completely reshaped the balance of power ahead of the 2026 US Open, potentially setting up one of the most unpredictable editions of the tournament in recent years.
On paper, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic stand out in the men’s draw. Still, each arrives at Flushing Meadows with at least one major question mark. The group of contenders is even wider on the women’s side, with Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina all having reasons to believe they could finish the tournament with the trophy in their hands.
Sinner’s Withdrawal Completely Changes the Men’s Draw
The biggest change came before the first serve. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner will not compete because of a knee injury, removing from the draw one of the players who had represented one of the biggest obstacles for the rest of the elite in recent seasons. 
His absence particularly changes the situation for Carlos Alcaraz. The defending US Open champion returns after a months-long layoff caused by a wrist injury. His last competitive singles match came in April, and the injury kept him out of both the French Open and Wimbledon.
Despite that, the Spaniard remains near the top of the predictions. His hard-court results, ability to raise his game at the biggest tournaments and the fact that he is defending the title are enough for many to place him ahead of the competition. The question is that no one knows for certain how his body will respond to best-of-five-set matches after such a long absence.
Djokovic Gets Another Chance at a 25th Grand Slam
Novak Djokovic arrives in New York with the same major goal that has followed him for several seasons — winning a 25th Grand Slam title.
The Serbian is 39, but age has not removed him from the group of contenders for tennis’ biggest trophies. He has won the US Open four times, most recently in 2023, when he also captured what remains his latest Grand Slam title.
This time, the circumstances appear considerably more favorable than they did at the beginning of the summer. Sinner is out of the tournament, while Alcaraz is returning from a lengthy layoff. That does not mean the path is open, but the potential obstacles no longer look as intimidating as they did in previous seasons.
Djokovic opens against Argentina’s Mariano Navone. In the second round, he could face Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka, while Tomas Martin Etcheverry could be the first seeded player in his path.
The more serious challenges would begin in the fourth round, where Brandon Nakashima and Andrey Rublev are potential opponents. In the quarterfinals, he could face Frances Tiafoe or Daniil Medvedev. If he reaches the semifinals, the projected draw sets up a major showdown with Carlos Alcaraz, although Ben Shelton or Arthur Fils could also disrupt that section of the bracket.
If Djokovic reaches the closing stages with enough energy left, his experience in major matches in New York could once again become one of his greatest advantages.
Cincinnati as a Warning Sign
One concern is Djokovic’s defeat in Cincinnati, where he lost in the second round to Argentina’s Thiago Agustin Tirante, who is 14 years younger. The match was played during the day, with the temperature at 28 degrees Celsius and humidity at 80%.
After the loss, Djokovic said he has struggled with such playing conditions for years. Similar conditions are known to occur in New York at this time of year. If organizers decide to spare the greatest tennis player in history from those conditions, Djokovic will play in the evening. Otherwise, they could end up losing one of the biggest stars of this year’s US Open.
Naturally, that would also certainly affect revenue, so it is almost certain that organizers will make an effort to prevent that from happening.
Since arriving in New York following the difficult defeat, Djokovic has had two weeks to prepare and try to reach his 25th Grand Slam title.
Zverev Could Be Waiting in the Final
Alexander Zverev cannot be overlooked either. Following Sinner’s withdrawal, the German became the top seed. He won the French Open this year and reached the Wimbledon final, which, based on his 2026 results, earns him a place near the very top of the list of favorites.
The next tier of contenders includes Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Arthur Fils. Shelton is particularly intriguing after showing during the North American portion of the season that he can threaten anyone on faster courts.
Sabalenka Defends Two Straight Titles but Is No Longer Untouchable
The women’s tournament may be even harder to predict.
Aryna Sabalenka is trying to win a third consecutive title in New York. If she succeeds, she would become the first woman since Serena Williams, who won from 2012 through 2014, with three consecutive US Open trophies.
The Belarusian is the top seed, and her strength on hard courts is unquestioned. However, the second half of the season has not been at the same level as the beginning of the year. After excellent results in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami, her form declined, and she has posted a 17–7 record since April.
That makes this year’s title defense look considerably more complicated than it did a year ago.
Gauff and Swiatek Arrive at the Right Time
Coco Gauff is among the players who have raised their level immediately before the most important part of the American season. She has a 30–6 record on hard courts this year and won the title in Cincinnati by defeating Jessica Pegula.
That result is particularly significant ahead of her return to the tournament where she won her first Grand Slam title in 2023. Gauff traditionally draws additional energy from the home crowd in New York, and her current form puts her alongside Sabalenka.
Iga Swiatek also enters the tournament after considerably better results. The Pole won the tournament in Toronto and showed that, after a less stable period, she can once again control matches on hard courts. She already knows how to win the US Open, having captured the title in New York in 2022.
Elena Rybakina also has to be considered among the contenders. She won the Australian Open earlier this year, but a recent leg injury adds uncertainty ahead of the two-week tournament.
Behind the leading four is a group of players capable of taking advantage of any slip by the favorites. Jessica Pegula has already played in a final in New York, Mirra Andreeva won the French Open, while Amanda Anisimova, Naomi Osaka and Marta Kostyuk are also among the players it would not be surprising to see deep into the second week.
Who Is the Favorite? No One!
What makes the 2026 US Open particularly intriguing is the fact that almost every favorite also has a clear reason why the title could slip away.
Alcaraz has the quality to defend his crown but lacks match play. Djokovic has more experience than anyone else in the draw but is entering the final stages of his career. Zverev may be the most consistent based on this season’s results, but he has never won in New York.
On the women’s side, Sabalenka is defending her crown, Gauff arrives with momentum, Swiatek is winning again, and Rybakina has the game for any surface if she stays healthy.
That is why the most accurate prediction ahead of this year’s US Open may be the one that does not identify a single certain winner.
Photo: AI/ChatGPT
